What’s going to happen with the economy? I don’t like to give my opinion, I like to look at what the experts are saying. Hi, I’m Alexia Clemens with White Brick Real Estate. Let’s dive in to what four of the major financial institutions are predicting.
The economy often is measured based upon the GDP, an economic snapshot of the United States. The first quarter GDP is a negative 4.8. The GDP is right on track for what the International Monetary Fund predicted for the United States in April of 2020. According to the four major financial institutions, Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan ,Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, the GDP will continue to go down for the second half of the year. Again, this is just as expected by the International Monetary Fund .
For the third quarter, three of the four institutions predict that the GDP will go up as businesses become operational and we have less restrictions. All four of the major financial institutions predict the fourth quarter to show positive economic recovery. This is also in line with the International Monetary Fund’s predictions about the U S recovery in 2021.
How are all the economists analyzing the recovery?
They use the science of Economics to compare how the economy rebounded from several slowdowns in the past. Because the current slow down was globally health-related they also have to look at Health Science. They are considering economic indicators as well as possible flare ups in the fall. Economists also look at Consumer Science. Once businesses are operational, how long it’ll take the U S consumer to return to a normal consumption pattern; like: eating out at restaurants, going to movies, or sporting events, or traveling, et cetera.
So taking all of these factors into account makes it a bit more difficult than in the past when they could just look at the Economic Science. And here’s another thing that’s good. None of the four major institutions are anticipating a “L” recovery. Meaning the economy is not going to go down and stay down. They are all projecting the economy to start to recover in the second half of the year in a “V” recovery.
So according to the experts, they are predicting the economy to go up in the second half of the year.
Please feel free to reach out to me anytime here at White Brick Real Estate, your local digital community market leader. I’m Alexia Clemens with White Brick Real Estate. The Cornerstone for YOUR Real Estate Relationships.